According to Stock Talk (@stocktalkweekly), the Federal Reserve has decided to leave interest rates unchanged, highlighting that while uncertainty about the economic outlook has lessened, it remains high (source: Stock Talk Twitter, June 18, 2025). For cryptocurrency traders, this policy stability may reduce immediate volatility in BTC and ETH markets, as rate hikes often pressure risk assets. However, the Fed's cautious tone suggests ongoing vigilance, keeping market participants alert to future policy shifts that could impact crypto liquidity and broader risk sentiment.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, US retail sales fell by 0.9% in May 2025, marking the second-largest decline since March 2023 and the second consecutive monthly drop. The decrease was broad-based, affecting 7 out of 13 categories, with significant weakness in building materials, gasoline, and motor vehicles (source: The Kobeissi Letter, June 18, 2025). For crypto traders, this continued decline in consumer spending signals growing economic uncertainty, which often drives increased interest in alternative assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies as investors seek safe-haven options. Historically, negative retail sales data has coincided with volatility in both traditional and crypto markets, making this an important metric to monitor for potential BTC price action and altcoin momentum.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the unemployment rate among new US college graduates has averaged 6.6% over the last 12 months, marking the highest level in a decade outside of 2020 (source: The Kobeissi Letter, June 18, 2025). This rising youth joblessness signals growing economic uncertainty, which historically drives increased interest in alternative assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). Traders should monitor for potential inflows into crypto as traditional employment prospects weaken, as this trend often correlates with spikes in crypto market activity.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, labor market sentiment has sharply declined, with only 44.1% of employees expressing a positive view of their employer’s business outlook for the next six months as of May 2025—a record low. The Glassdoor employee confidence index has also dropped by 11.5 percentage points since its 2022 peak (source: The Kobeissi Letter on Twitter, June 18, 2025). This weakening sentiment signals broader economic uncertainty, which historically leads to increased volatility in both traditional and cryptocurrency markets. Traders should monitor these labor indicators closely, as negative outlooks tend to correlate with risk-off moves in major crypto assets like BTC and ETH.

According to @thebuttholecoin, Butthole Coin (BUTTHOLE) is being positioned as a hedge against economic uncertainty, highlighting its potential use case for traders seeking alternative risk management strategies in volatile markets (Source: @thebuttholecoin via Twitter, June 17, 2025). This narrative may drive speculative interest and liquidity in the BUTTHOLE token, as traders look for non-traditional assets to diversify portfolios, especially during macroeconomic instability. However, no fundamental or technical data was provided to support the claim, so traders should exercise caution and monitor liquidity and volatility metrics closely.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, US existing home sales dropped 3.1% year-over-year to an annualized 4.0 million in April 2025, marking the lowest April reading since 2009. Month-over-month, sales fell 0.5%, significantly missing the expected 2.0% increase, with declines led by the West and Northeast regions (source: The Kobeissi Letter, June 8, 2025). This housing market weakness signals potential tightening in consumer liquidity, a factor that could pressure risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies as investors reassess exposure amid economic uncertainty.

According to @CNBC, a significant wave of layoffs has been reported across major companies in recent weeks, with tech, finance, and retail sectors most affected. This surge in job cuts reflects growing economic uncertainty and has triggered increased market volatility. For cryptocurrency traders, this environment often leads to heightened risk-off sentiment, strengthening demand for stablecoins and hedging assets like Bitcoin. Historical data cited by CNBC shows correlations between widespread layoffs and short-term dips in equities, which can lead to liquidity inflows to digital assets as investors seek alternative returns. Traders should monitor macroeconomic trends and adjust stop-loss and position sizing for increased volatility. (Source: CNBC via @DowdEdward, June 8, 2025)

According to The Kobeissi Letter, US employers announced 93,816 job cuts in May 2025, marking a 47% year-over-year increase and the highest level for any May since 2020. The services sector led with 22,492 layoffs, its highest in five years, followed by retail and technology at 11,483 and 10,598 cuts respectively (source: The Kobeissi Letter). Such widespread layoffs in key sectors can add pressure to traditional financial markets, often increasing volatility and risk-off sentiment among investors. Historically, labor market weakness has driven increased interest in alternative assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum as traders seek non-correlated opportunities. Short-term, traders should expect heightened volatility and potential inflows into crypto assets as macroeconomic uncertainty rises.

According to The Kobeissi Letter citing @Kalshi, the probability of the US entering a recession in 2025 has jumped to 43% following President Trump's new tariff threats. This heightened recession risk may trigger increased volatility in both traditional and cryptocurrency markets, as traders anticipate potential capital flows from equities to digital assets as a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty (source: Kalshi via The Kobeissi Letter, May 23, 2025).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, US consumers' expectations about their financial situation over the next year dropped to an all-time low in May 2025, as reported by the latest University of Michigan survey (source: The Kobeissi Letter, May 22, 2025). Sentiment levels are now even lower than during the 2008 financial crisis and the late 1970s economic downturns. This unprecedented pessimism could accelerate capital flows into alternative assets like Bitcoin and stablecoins, as investors search for hedges against economic uncertainty. Crypto traders should monitor on-chain data for increased inflows and heightened volatility, as shifts in risk appetite may drive both short-term price swings and longer-term adoption trends in digital assets.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, US consumers' expectations for their financial situation over the next year have dropped to an all-time low in May 2025, as reported by the University of Michigan survey (source: The Kobeissi Letter, May 22, 2025). This pessimism surpasses levels seen during the 2008 financial crisis and late 1970s stagflation. For traders, this heightened economic uncertainty often leads to increased volatility in traditional markets and can drive capital flows into alternative assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Historical data suggests that periods of low consumer confidence frequently correlate with spikes in crypto trading volumes as investors seek hedges against US dollar depreciation and stock market instability.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, higher yields are generally viewed as bearish for the stock market because rising borrowing costs slow down economic activity, especially during periods of uncertainty. The Kobeissi Letter further notes that ongoing debates over the US tax bill and increasing deficit spending add to market uncertainty. For crypto traders, this heightened volatility in traditional markets often leads to increased interest in digital assets as alternative investments, potentially impacting Bitcoin and Ethereum trading volumes and price trends (source: @KobeissiLetter, May 21, 2025).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the US Consumer Sentiment Index dropped by 1.4 points to 52.2, marking the second-lowest reading ever recorded, even lower than during the 2008 financial crisis and the 1980s recession (Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Twitter, May 17, 2025). The current conditions component also fell by 2.2 points to 57.6, signifying deepening pessimism among US consumers. For crypto traders, such historically negative consumer sentiment signals rising economic uncertainty, potentially increasing volatility across risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum as investors reassess safe havens and market sentiment shifts. This data is critical for trading strategies as it often precedes significant market moves in both traditional equities and cryptocurrencies.

According to The Kobeissi Letter on Twitter, 44% of US consumers now expect higher unemployment within the next 12 months, marking the highest level since 2020. The New York Fed reports this figure has surged by 10 percentage points in just two months, representing the second-largest two-month increase on record. Such a sharp shift in consumer sentiment may signal economic uncertainty, often leading to increased volatility in both traditional and cryptocurrency markets as investors seek safe-haven assets or adjust risk exposure. Crypto traders should closely monitor macroeconomic sentiment indicators, as rising unemployment expectations can influence liquidity, risk appetite, and capital flows into digital assets. (Source: The Kobeissi Letter, NY Fed, May 16, 2025)

According to The Kobeissi Letter, 23% of S&P 500 companies referenced 'recession' during their Q1 2025 earnings calls, the highest level since 2022 and exceeding all years from 2008 to 2020 except one (source: The Kobeissi Letter, May 13, 2025). This significant uptick in recession concerns among US corporate executives signals heightened economic uncertainty, which historically drives increased volatility and risk-off sentiment in both traditional equities and cryptocurrency markets. Traders should monitor for potential capital flows out of risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum as macroeconomic caution rises.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index plunged by 38.9 points in April to -26.4, marking its lowest reading since April 2023 and the second-lowest since 2020 (source: The Kobeissi Letter, Twitter, May 12, 2025). Additionally, new orders fell by 42.9 points to -34.2, the weakest since April 2020. This sharp contraction in US manufacturing signals increased economic uncertainty, which often leads to heightened volatility in both traditional equities and the cryptocurrency market as traders seek safe-haven assets and reassess risk exposure.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, US employers announced 105,441 job cuts in April 2025, marking the highest April layoffs in five years, excluding the pandemic spike in 2020 (source: The Kobeissi Letter, May 8, 2025). Over the last six months, total layoffs reached 699,012, the most since the 2020 pandemic. This sharp increase in job cuts signals rising economic uncertainty, which has historically increased stock market volatility and often driven risk-averse investors towards alternative assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Traders should closely monitor crypto market inflows and price movements, as heightened layoffs can impact both traditional and digital asset markets (source: The Kobeissi Letter, May 8, 2025).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, US employers announced 105,441 job cuts in April 2025, marking the highest April layoff total in five years and the largest April count since 2009, excluding the pandemic year 2020 (source: @KobeissiLetter, May 8, 2025). Over the last six months, there have been 699,012 job cuts, the highest since 2020. This significant rise in layoffs signals potential macroeconomic instability, which traders should monitor as it may lead to increased volatility in both stock and cryptocurrency markets. Historically, economic uncertainty and rising unemployment have triggered shifts in capital flows, often resulting in heightened crypto market activity as investors seek alternative assets.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the number of long-term unemployed Americans surged to 1.67 million in April 2025, marking the highest level since February 2022. Over the past two years, those unemployed for 27 weeks or more increased by approximately 600,000. This trend signals persistent labor market weakness, which could impact consumer spending and overall economic sentiment. For crypto traders, elevated long-term unemployment may drive increased volatility as investors hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty by reallocating assets into digital currencies. These labor market shifts are crucial for crypto market positioning (source: The Kobeissi Letter, Twitter, May 7, 2025).

According to Cas Abbé, Bitcoin (BTC) is currently outperforming the S&P 500, coinciding with a negative US Q1 GDP report and record-high economic uncertainty (source: @cas_abbe, May 1, 2025). This signals BTC’s evolution into a global hedge asset, as investors seek alternatives amid macroeconomic volatility. The BTC/SPX ratio breakout is viewed as a technical confirmation of this trend, indicating potential for further institutional inflows and sustained upward momentum for BTC relative to traditional equities (source: @cas_abbe). Traders are advised to monitor BTC/SPX ratios and institutional flow data for actionable signals.